BAMRO

Gaza: War has set Palestine’s development back nearly 70 years

The impact of the year-long war in Gaza and escalations in the West Bank has set development in the State of Palestine back by about 69 years, according to a new UN report released on Tuesday.

“Without lifting economic restrictions, enabling recovery, and investing in development, the Palestinian economy may not be able to restore pre-war levels and advance forward by relying on humanitarian aid alone,” Gaza war: Expected socioeconomic impacts on the State of Palestine, concludes, produced by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA).

The analysis suggests three recovery scenarios for Palestine. Given that the recovery will be a long-term process, the report assessed both the immediate impact projected for 2025 and the long-term impact anticipated by 2034, a decade after the start of the conflict.

“Our assessments serve to sound the alarm over the millions of lives that are being shattered and the decades of development efforts that are being wiped out,” said ESCWA Executive Secretary Rola Dashti.

“It is high time to end the suffering and bloodshed that have engulfed our region. We must unite to find a lasting solution where all peoples can live in peace, dignity and reap the benefit of sustainable development and where international law and justice are finally upheld.”

Projections estimate that the gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 35.1 per cent in 2024 compared with a no-war scenario, with unemployment potentially rising to 49.9 per cent.

Three recovery scenarios
Building on findings published in November and May, the report estimates that poverty in Palestine will rise to 74.3 per cent in 2024, affecting 4.1 million people, including 2.61 million people who are newly impoverished.

The assessment also examines the extent and depth of deprivation, employing multidimensional poverty indicators and includes recovery prospects for Palestine after a ceasefire is reached as well as three early recovery scenarios.

The non-restricted early recovery scenario sees restrictions on Palestinian workers lifted and withheld clearance revenues restored to the Palestinian Authority.

In addition to $280 million in humanitarian aid, $290 million is allocated annually for recovery efforts, resulting in an increase in productivity by one per cent annually, enabling the economy to recover and putting Palestinian development back on track.